Key Bitcoin Price Indicator Turns Bearish in First Since December

View Bitcoin could fall to the July 2 low of $9,614 and may break lower in the short-term, as the widely tracked MACD histogram on the three-day chart has turned bearish for the first time since December.

A widely tracked bitcoin price indicator has turned bearish for the first time in seven months.

The moving average convergence divergence histogram - an indicator used to identify trend changes and the momentum of the bearish or bullish movement - has dropped below zero on the three-day chart for the first time since Dec. 21, 2018.

As seen above, the MACD's drop below zero in the first week of January 2018 marked the beginning of the bear market.

The MACD failed to cross above zero in the first week of March and began reporting bearish conditions, following which BTC fell from $8,300 to $6,400.

More recently, the indicator crossed above zero, signaling a bearish-to-bullish trend change, almost four months before bitcoin broke into a bull market with a high-volume above $4,236 on April 2, 2019.

There is a strong case to believe that the latest bearish turn by MACD may be followed by a notable price drop.

On the weekly chart, the previous three candles printed highs above $12,000, as indicated by their upper wicks, but failed to close above the psychological resistance amid overbought conditions reported by the 14-week relative strength index.

In the last 12 hours, the cryptocurrency has struggled to settle above $11,000 and seems to have created another bearish lower high around that psychological resistance, as seen below.

A high-volume break above $11,000 would invalidate the bearish lower-highs setup and could yield a rise to $11,500.