Bitcoin to pass $20,000 by June 2020? Options market sees 4% probability

Bitcoin hasn't been doing too hot over recent months.

This brutal drawdown unsurprisingly sullied the spirits of countless cryptocurrency investors, who thought in June that it was inevitable Bitcoin was to surpass $20,000 in 2019.

Harrowing sentiment aside, there remains a small group of traders that believe Bitcoin is ready to take on new highs, as soon as June 2020 no less.

Bitcoin options traders remain bullish-some traders, at least.

Cryptocurrency derivatives analytics platform Skew recently observed that the options market for Bitcoin is pricing in a 4 percent chance that BTC will have passed $20,000 by June 2020.

In just over six months, in May, Bitcoin will see its next block reward "Halving," when the number of coins issued per block gets cut by 50 percent to satisfy the cryptocurrency's disinflationary issuance schedule.

Although this may sound mundane, analysts expect this event to have a resounding effect on the Bitcoin market.

PlanB's so-called stock-to-flow model, which is accurate to an R² of 0.945, suggests that "The predicted market value for bitcoin after May 2020 halving is $1trn, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000."

Notably, the model doesn't forecast that Bitcoin will be at $55,000 at the date of the halving or on the date of the expiry of the $20,000 by June 2020 Bitcoin option.

The cryptocurrency market has historically surged by dozens of percent into halving events due to the anticipation of the halving's negative supply shock, making $20,000 by June a possibility, though still not a certainty.