CoinFlex to Offer 'Prediction Futures' on Whether Libra Launches in 2020

A crypto derivatives exchange is launching physically-delivered futures contracts that will be settled based on whether Facebook's Libra does or does not launch in 2020.

According to Bloomberg's report on Oct. 7, the new offering is slated for launch by the Seychelles-registered CoinFlex exchange via an "Initial Futures Opening" on Oct. 24.The IFO concept: betting on tokens that don't exist yet.

CoinFlex's IFO will set the price of a futures contract at 30 cents - reflecting a roughly 30% likelihood that Libra will launch by December 2020.

Once 30 minutes since the IFO's launch have lapsed, traders who have not yet participated will be able to trade the contract at prices that better align with their individual estimation of how likely Libra is to launch by Dec. 2020, or the contract's settlement date.

If a trader deems it 70% likely that Libra will be operational by the time of the contract's expiration date, they will pay 70% of one Libra token.

Traders will also be able to bet against Libra launching in 2020, with gains for both long and short trades to be capped at $1.1 per Libra to account for fluctuations in the value of the currencies backing the token, revealed Lamb.

"This can be interesting if it gathers liquidity as its kind of a prediction market on Libra."

Amid the robust regulatory pushback, Libra's creators have given increasingly mixed signals as to the coin's eventual expected launch date.

In mid-September, Bertrand Perez, the director general of the Libra Association, has said that the token should appear in the second half of 2020.

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has meanwhile stopped short of committing to a timeframe, conceding that the project was potentially "Very sensitive for society" and noting that, given the scale it operates at, Facebook must "Work through the issues" thoroughly before Libra's launch.